Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication — currently in its twenty-ninth edition — containing estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the year 2030. Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actual statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for 2008, however, are estimated, since the latest available information from the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations is for 2006. Population data originate from the World Population Prospects (2008 Revision), published by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2008 values are estimates. The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclear power up to the year 2030 is presented as low and high estimates in order to encompass the uncertainties associated with the future. These estimates should be viewed as very general growth trends whose validity must constantly be subjected to critical review. The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbers over the last years by international, national and private organizations are based on a multiplicity of different assumptions and different aggregating procedures, which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult. The basic differences refer to such fundamental input data as:
— World and regional scenarios of economic development; — Correlation of economic growth and energy consumption; — Assumptions on physical, economic and political constraints applying to energy production and consumption; — Future prices of different energy sources…
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